The Harper Challange

The challenge facing the Conservative party and Canadians is the simple fact that a Harper government is not sustainable. Harper is a de-constructor. Harper is not a creator or builder or team player. Point and case, the new restrictions on travellers to Canada from Mexico. 

“This is not the fault of the government of Mexico – let me be very clear about this,” Mr. Harper told reporters, “This is a problem in Canadian refugee law which encourages bogus claims.”

The challenge here is that Harper has left Mexico out in the cold with no ride home. Harper perceives a problem with Canadian Law, and so instead of working toward a solution, he makes this alternative choice. This is typical Harper, he can not work well with others to bridge differing points of view in order to come to a mutually agreed upon course of action that will expedite the solution. Instead, he heads down a “temporary” path that divides Parliament and ostracises our neighbor, friend, and trading partner. This action has put more distance between the present moment and the solution. Harper has made it tougher to solve this problem.

This is typical Harper. His primary tactic is to identify a challenge, identify a polarizing position, create the field of combat, tear down the existing infrastructure and then… This is the Harper challange. There is no “and then”. There is no larger plan. It is essentially combat and crisis management. Harper is not a builder, so he is not capable of constructing a solution or a sustainable partnership.

Here is a few examples of Harper tearing things down, not repairing or improving them.

“For taxpayers, however, it’s a rip-off. And it has nothing to do with gender. Bothmen and women taxpayers will pay additional money to both men and women in the civil service. That’s why the federal government should scrap its ridiculous pay equity law.” – Stephen Harper, NCC Overview, Fall 1998. 

“You have to remember that west of Winnipeg the ridings the Liberals hold are dominated by people who are either recent Asian immigrants or recent migrants from Eastern Canada; people who live in ghettos and are not integrated into Western Canadian society.”- Stephen Harper, in Report Newsmagazine, 2001.

“Canada is a second tier Norther Eurpoean Welfare State” Harper

“It’s past time the feds scrapped the Canada Health Act.”
- Stephen Harper, then Vice-President of the National Citizens Coalition, 1997.

“Withdraw from the Canada Pension Plan… Collect our own revenue from personal income tax… Resume provincial responsibility for health-care policy. If Ottawa objects to provincial policy, fight in the courts… Each province should raise its own revenue for health… It is imperative to take the initiative, to build firewalls around Alberta… “
- Stephen Harper in an “Open letter to Ralph Klein,” January 24th, 2001.

This is not all bad. sometimes you have to tear things down in order to rebuild. The thing is though, once ready to rebuild, you fire the demolition crew. The challenge with Harper is that he is not capable of fulfilling this role. He is static in his resolve.

“I don’t think my fundamental beliefs have changed in a decade.”
- Stephen Harper – CBC interview with Carolyn Ryan, January 11th, 2006.

When Canadians and the Conservative party are ready to rebuild and grow again, we will have to be rid of Harper. The Conservatives will not get a majority with Harper as leader. If he could not get a majority against Dion, he will never get a majority. Without a majority, Parliament needs to work together effectively in order to get anything done. This is not one of Harpers’ strong suits.

Joe Clark on Harper’s agenda:
“In a sense, people are so enraged at the Liberal government, that they’re giving Stephen Harper and his government a
bye. They should take a look at what he proposes.”
- Former Progressive Conservative leader Joe Clark, April 26th, 2004, reported in the Globe and Mail.

Preston Manning on Stephen Harper’s view of himself: “Stephen [Harper] had difficulty accepting that there might be a few other people (not many, perhaps, but a few) who were as smart as he was with respect to policy and strategy.”- Former Reform Party founder and leader Preston Manning on Stephen Harper in his memoirs.

Deborah Gray on Harper’s people skills:
“People skills? He was more fond of policy. Constituency work seemed like a grind for him.”
- Long-time Reform and Alliance MP Deborah Grey on Conservative leader Stephen Harper.

 I do not know if Ignatieff is the solution. What I do know is that it can not get much worse. This might be hard for a die hard conservative to hear, but here is how loud it is – Flaherty killed the trust industry pulling billions out of the stock market and chasing capital out of Canada. I propose that the Liberals would not have been so harsh as they would have not wanted to reap the negative sentiment from the west. There could have been a smoother transition. Secondly, there was no tax leakage. The reason for the sudden destruction of this segment of the market is not clear. Also, why would the real estate trusts primarily based in Toronto and Montreal remain to be legal yet the energy trusts primarily based in Calgary be made illegal? Harper et al seem to take the position “screw the west, those dumb hillbillies will vote conservative anyway”.

On the bright side perhaps the Canadian athletes will look good at the Vancouver Olympics wearing Harpers’ Seal Pelt Uniforms. Besides, why would Canadians want for trade and good relations with the EU?  

I suggest that it is time to start rebuilding. Time to fire the demolition crew. It is time to bring in the negotiators and find some middle ground on which to build.

Mike

 

 

Alberta needs a Sustainable Energy Policy

The challenge right now in Alberta is capital. The reason that Capital is hard to come by and that drilling and general oil and gas activity is so low is only in a small part due to commodity prices and the high Canadian dollar. The reason there is limited activity in Alberta is due to Ed Stelmach and the Alberta government’s Ready-Fire-Aim Energy policy. First lets talk about the recent history of Energy Policy in AB.

The story begins with Ed Stelmach, after his rise to power. Once in power Ed decided that he was going to change the royalty structure in AB. The propaganda project was designed around AB getting a fair share. Ed hired a group of individuals to study the royalty structure and provide recommendations. The Royalty Review produced a not only worthless, but very destructive documents. Then Industry groups, E&P’s, and investment houses all tried to influence the premier to have a closer look at what he was about to do. He apparent stormed out of one meeting not to return. He told the press that the industry was threatening him. The reality is that Industry informed him that when they ran the economic models within their organizations they realized that it made more sense to invest elsewhere than in AB. Some of these individuals being the CEO’s of oil and gas companies are bound by fiduciary duty to accurately represent their share holders. As such any public statements made by these people can not be contrived or misleading without the individual being personally liable. Ed not have any public enterprise experience did not take heed of the situation. The changes were made, and capital flight ensued. Lets have a slightly closer look at the review. 

The baseline cost assumptions were outdated and therefore inaccurate causing the analysis to be wrong. Secondly, the review compared AB to foreign countries that have entirely different industries. A good well in AB produces hundreds of BOED (barrels of oil equivalent per day). In the Review Panels comparative jurisdictions, a good well produces thousands or tens of thousands of BOED. Of specific note, the royalty review panel did not look at the royalty structure in the offsetting jurisdictions like British Columbia, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, etc. This created a situation where they were comparing Apples and Oranges without having the experience or competence to kn0w this.

During implementation, there were numerous mistakes in the formula released to industry and the public. I believe that there were two corrections to the original formula and many changes to the interpretation of other rules during the unintended consequence phase of the Stelmach learning curve. The royalties were instated at the first of the year, yet many of the electronic forms and incentive election processes were not set up until more than six months after the fact. I would call it amateur hour as others have, but that is an insult to the concept of amateur. This was ignorance prodding arrogance.

Bounce ahead to today. Ed and the gang have finally taken in upon themselves to have a competitive study completed. this is the information that was originally relayed to him by the CEO’s “if you do this we will invest elsewhere” because it is more competitive and thus represents better economics IE greater rate of return for the share holders, or the owners of the corporation we are employed to represent. Check out Encana’s press releases shortly after the royalty announcements. They moved vast sums of money south of the 49th. Doing the competitive review after the fact is a simple reminder of just how clueless this current “conservative” AB government is.

The real challenge going forward is going to be to attract invest back to AB. This will not happen until Ed Stelmach is out of power. He is viewed by industry and the investment community as the individual responsible for the evaporation of billions of dollars. This value can be measure by the movement of capital out of AB based oil and gas equities as well as lost mineral rights bonuses paid to the province, lost income taxe, reduced exports and thus reduced royalty payments. It has to be noted that many many people who make the decision of where to invest billions of dollars (fund managers, venture capitalists, etc) lost huge sums of money due to Ed Stelmach and his thick skull. If someone stole all your money, how likely is it that you are going to invest more money with the fellow who stole it from you? Not very likely.

The sustainable solution is that Ed Stelmach can no longer be the premier. This is obvious. You cannot loose billions of dollars choosing to make decisions against the recommendations and analysis of the experts. This is like hiring the uneducated farmhand to run the multinational corporation. Not a good idea. Then, when the farmhand runs the corporation into the ground, he wants to continue as CEO. Worse idea. Wake up, you lost money because you made terrible decisions against the best advice that money can buy. This was a flagrant display of arrogance and ignorance of it.

In order for capital to move back to AB investors require the security to know that the rules of business are not going to change on a whim or a pig fart as it is, causing their investment to evaporate. This is going to be a major challenge especially considering that Ed Stelmach still does not get it. His latest solution is to provide a one or two year band aid fix. Well, business in this basin does not make decisions based on one year. The investment has to perform well over a number of years to provide a solid rate of return, or a reliable net present value. Disconnected this man’s buzzer. SCTV

Alberta needs an energy policy that is concise and secure. It needs to outlined to industry how changes are to be made. These decision have to be taken out of the premiers office and placed in a “board of directors” kind of committee that represents the province, the citizens, the environment, industry, and the investment community. Kind of like it would be handled in a democracy. One should perhaps consider that prior to making his decisions Ed did not even consult with Alberta Energy or the ERCB, the two government bodies that over see the industry. Shocking I know… 

At any rate, the solution is to first get rid of Ed, then provide a legal framework for future changes and amendments to the royalty framework in the province. The goal being to create a competitive regime whereby all interested parties benefit. If you want people to invest in the provice, because you want the jobs and royalty revenue, you need to consider what investor requires inorder to make that investment. He needs assurance that his investment is not going to get stolen. The good news is that this is AB, and eventually the economy and investment will bounce back.

I used to say that “even a moron couldn’t fu*& up the AB alberta economy”. I don’t say that any more.

 Hello world!

By mjbworthington

Operation Sustainability is a blog dedicated to sustainability as it pertains to all aspects of life and human endeavor. Sustainability is defined as the ability to endure. From early education, we all understand that the ability to endure depends on the basic requirements of survival and civilization to be met. These are food clothing shelter, and education, health, and economy respectively. These concepts apply across international geopolitical discussions to household and personal time management.

The Canadian government has stated that it supports a sustainable peace and peace process in the Middle East. The Canadian government has recently executed security and immigration agreements with Israel. The Canadian Armed Forces are preparing to end their active combat role in Afghanistan. This end will provide much needed respite for the men and the equipment that they employ.

The world has committed huge sums of money for aid and reconstruction of Gaza to rebuild and sustain the population there after the recent Israeli offensive. The current issue is that the aid workers and supplies are not getting into Gaza. The primary issue that I see is that the interested parties need to be assured that the aid and reconstruction materials are not going to be used to strengthen Israel’s perceived enemy within Gaza.

Canada needs to cease active combat in order to rest and rebuild. Canada also needs to re-engage the world in peace keeping and negotiations and security. With Canada’s recent security and immigration agreements with Israel, it makes sense that Canada becomes actively involved in facilitating and enabling the secure and efficient deployment of international aid into Gaza. Historically, this is one of Canada’s most recognized international expertises.

To be frank, Canada has paid in blood to secure Kandahar. It has been a long and hard fought mission. Canada’s combat machinery requires rest and repair. Canada can capitalize on; this commitment to NATO and to her Allies, Canada’s unique and exemplary peace keeping and security machinery, to mobilize aid and materials into Gaza to design and build the foundations of survival and civilization. This I propose is Canada’s commitment to the sustainable peace process in the Middle East.

Gaza, the West Bank, and the Israeli settlements require the construction of waste water treatment facilities to ensure the environment and mores specifically to protect the freshwater supply in the region. Gaza requires the reconstruction of schools, hospitals, potable water treatment and delivery, and access to housing and or home construction materials, as well as electrical generation and delivery. These are some of the basic services required to be able to establish a stable and sustainable population. With this foundation, peace and economy can develop to create a sustainable society. This light at the end of the tunnel is absolutely paramount to the peace process in the Middle East.

Canada is in a unique position to provide security for Israel and to mobilize peace keepers, negotiators, engineers, builders, and labor into Gaza. Canada is in a unique position to provide the security measures and conduit which will enable the execution and delivery of Aid the world has set aside for Gaza. Canada can provide the bridge between the current situation and a sustainable future. The world has displayed it’s generosity in setting aside vast sums of money for reconstruction. Israel has expressing and enacted its concerns. It is Canada’s mission to bridge this divide through a display of decency, compassion, diligence, and hard work. It is time for Canada to don the BLUE HELMET and choose to accept this mission.

There is a quote by Mahatma Gandhi I read recently that I am reminded of. ”Become the change that you wish to see in the world. I wish to see the foundations of a sustainable peace being laid in Gaza and the Middle East. The promotion of the West’s best qualities is now required more that ever if the populations of the Middle East are to find commonality and ultimately peace. Upon this foundation much can be built.

Should you agree with this position, I implore you to write your MP and make it known that Canada is uniquely positioned to employ our strength and determination to improve ourselves and world around us

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